Getting Ahead of Winter 2026 / 2027: How we’re planning earlier to support the NHS

As the NHS prepares for the pressures of winter, NHS Supply Chain has already begun work to help ensure essential products are available where and when they are needed.

Following last year’s enhanced winter planning programme, preparations for winter 2026 / 2027 began in March, earlier than ever before.

This reflects lessons learned from the 2025 / 2026 winter period and provides more time to work with suppliers, customers and partners to strengthen resilience ahead of peak demand.

Building on lessons learned

Last year, NHS Supply Chain introduced a coordinated approach to winter preparedness through a dedicated Winter Working Group, bringing together colleagues from resilience, demand planning, inventory management, clinical teams, customer services and category management.

A key lesson from last winter was the value of earlier planning.

‘We have been talking about winter since March, despite heading into summer,’ explains Amy Staff, from NHS Supply Chain’s Resilience Team.

Seasonal illness activity started earlier than expected last year. By beginning our planning sooner, we’ve been able to share forecasts with suppliers, review risks and ensure the right plans are in place well ahead of winter.

Planning based on insight

While winter demand can never be predicted with complete certainty, we are using historical demand data, supplier intelligence, clinical expertise and external insight to identify products likely to see increased demand.

Around 208 products, including PPE and respiratory items, have been identified for enhanced monitoring and increased stockholding over the winter period. The process draws on five years of demand data and is validated by clinical and category teams to ensure decisions are based on evidence rather than assumptions.

We are also working with organisations such as the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and monitoring international trends to help inform planning assumptions.

‘We can’t predict every eventuality,’ says Amy – ‘What we can do is use the best information available and plan as thoroughly as possible.’

Working with suppliers and customers

Supplier engagement has already begun, with forecasts shared to support production and inventory planning. Additional assurance activity, including supplier audits and stockholding reviews, will further strengthen visibility across the supply chain.

The importance of this work has increased further given ongoing global supply chain uncertainties. While we continue to monitor international developments separately through dedicated resilience processes, early winter planning provides an additional opportunity to review potential impacts and mitigation options.

Customers are also being encouraged to consider their winter plans early. For organisations with local warehousing capacity, we are exploring opportunities for forward ordering and local stockholding where appropriate.

‘Winter preparedness works best when it’s a partnership,’ explains Amy. ‘If customers can share information about anticipated demand pressures or local plans that could affect products usage, it helps us plan more effectively and respond to changing needs.’

A shared commitment to resilience

While no organisation can eliminate every potential disruption, early planning helps strengthen preparedness and supports a more coordinated response should challenges arise.

The Winter Working Group will continue to meet regularly throughout the coming months, assessing demand signals, monitoring risks and working closely with suppliers and customers as activity increases towards autumn and winter.

By starting earlier, sharing forecasts sooner and strengthening collaboration across the health system, we are taking practical steps to support NHS organisations through the winter season ahead. As Amy concludes:

Our aim is simple – to be as prepared as we possibly can be. We can’t predict every eventuality, but by planning early, working closely with suppliers and listening to our customers, we’re putting ourselves in the strongest position to support the NHS throughout winter.

Do you have additional storage capacity?

To support winter preparedness, we’re keen to work with customers who have local warehousing or storage capacity and may be able to hold stock ahead of the peak winter period.

Forward ordering and local stockholding can strengthen resilience, improve visibility of demand and help us to ensure products are available across the NHS when needed most.

If your organisation has available storage capacity, please speak to your ICS Manager or contact our Customer Services team to discuss forward ordering and local stockholding options.

We also encourage customers to share any intelligence from their own winter planning, including anticipated changes in demand or local pressures, so we can work together to plan effectively for the months ahead.